[상보] 미국 2015년 2분기 GDP 발표 전문, 미국 상무부

[글로벌이코노믹 김재희 기자] 미국의 국내총생산(GDP) 지표가 발표됐다.

GDP는 경제의 성장상태를 나타내주는 가장 중요한 지표다.
미국의 졍제상황을 진단하는 데에 있어서는 물론이고 연준의 기준 금리인상의 기초 자료가 된다는 점에서 찬찬히 뜯어볼 필요가 있다.

미국 상무부가 한국시간 31일 새벽에 발표한 4월부터 6월까지의 올 2분기 GDP 전문을 소개한다.


Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate);

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent (revised).

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency . The "second" estimate for the second quarter,based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2015.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts

The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2015. In addition to the regular revision of the estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2015, some series are revised back further (see the Technical Note). More information is available in "Preview of the 2015 Annual Revision of the NIPAs" in the June Survey of Current Business and on BEA's Web site. The August Survey will contain an article that describes the results.

NOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by downturns in private inventory investment, in nonresidential fixed investment,and in federal government spending and a deceleration in residential fixed investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first.Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent,compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the first. Durable goods increased 7.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Nondurable goods increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent. Services increased 2.1 percent, the same increase as in the first quarter.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 0.6 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent in the first. Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 1.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.4 percent. Investment in equipment decreased 4.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 5.5 percent, compared with an increase of 7.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 6.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.1 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 6.0 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 7.1 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.1 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.1 percent in the first. National defense decreased 1.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.0 percent. Nondefense decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.2 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.

The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.08 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.87 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $110.0 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $112.8 billion in the first quarter and $78.2 billion in the fourth.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the first.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first.

Disposition of personal income

Current-dollar personal income increased $145.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $118.9 billion in the first. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected upturns in personal interest income and in farm proprietors' income that were partly offset by decelerations in government social benefits and in personal dividend income.

Personal current taxes increased $26.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $60.2 billion in the first.

Disposable personal income increased $118.6 billion, or 3.7 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $58.7 billion, or 1.8 percent, in the first. Real disposable personal income increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

Personal outlays increased $161.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $10.3 billion in the first.

Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $640.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with $683.3 billion in the first.

The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the first. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States.
Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States -- increased 4.4 percent, or $191.2 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,840.5 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 0.8 percent, or $33.3 billion.

Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components".


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