[김박사 진단] 미국 연준 FOMC 정책성명서 전문 분석, 금리인상 올해 4번 이상 시사

[글로벌이코노믹 연구소 김대호 소장] 미국 연준 즉 Fed가 기준금리를 동결했다.

연방기금 금리를 현재의 1.50~1.75%선에서 그대로 유지하기 한 것이다.

연준은 3일 새벽 연방 공개시장위원회 즉 FOMC 정례회의를 끝내면서 정책성명서를 발표했다.

FOMC는 이 정책 성명서에서 기준금리 동결을 공식화 했다.
연준의 이 정책성명서는 미국 증시 등 시장의 판단과 대부분 일치하는 것이다.

연준은 이 정책성명서에서 물가 2% 강조했다. 물가가 2%이상으로 오르지 않도록 예의주시하겠다는 뜻이다. 물가가 2%이상으로 올라갈 조짐을 보이면 즉각 기준금리를 올리겠다는 메시지이다.

연준은 이 정책성명서에서 물가가 중기적으로 목표 수준인 2%에 도달할 것으로 예상했다. 이는 앞으로 연준의 금리 인상이 가속할 것을 예고하는 것이다.

연준은 지난 3월 FOMC 회의에서 연방기금 금리를 0.25%포인트 인상한바 있다. 당시 올 3번의 금리 인상을 예고한 바 있다.

미국증시 전문가들은 이날 연준 FOMC 정책성명서에 대해 물가가 오를 경우 금리를 더 많이 올릴수도 있다는 의사의 표명으로 보는 견해가 많다.

다음은 연준 FOMC 정책보고서 전문

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.

Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly.

On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.


This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.

Implementation Note issued May 2, 2018


김대호 소장 / 경제학 박사 tiger8280@g-enews.com